Why mentally resilient Cardiff will bounce back from Derby defeat and beat Fulham to automatic promotion

If Cardiff fail to win automatic promotion, they will look back at the loss to Derby on Tuesday as the night they blew it. If they are to drop more points it will be this Saturday at Hull, rather than against Reading, and that will be off the back of their draining defeat at Pride Park. They should not have lost when a goal up against a team who had lost their previous three, with two wins from thirteen and a history of choking at this point of the season.

Cardiff should have seen the game out and they would have had one foot in the Premier League. Now it's a great opportunity for Fulham to put the pressure back on, as they play first this weekend.

I still believe Cardiff will finish second though. I may yet be proven wrong but I still think Saturday April 14 will prove to be the most significant day in the battle for second. Fulham, after their incredible run, chased down Cardiff and went second during that week, albeit having played a game more. The hunter then became the hunted, as Cardiff had just come off the back of one point from a possible nine and serious questions were being asked about their chances of automatic promotion.

I thought Cardiff’s match at Carrow Road would tell us if they were about to implode. 85 minutes had gone, it was 0-0 but somehow they found a way to win. The Fulham players would have been watching that game and they went out almost immediately after to play Brentford looking shell-shocked. They played poorly and conceded a late equalising goal in a game they probably deserved to lose.

Bottom line: when the pressure was really on, Cardiff showed that mentally they are the strongest side in the division and came through. They will need to show that resilience again. But I think that they will and win the last two games.

For Derby, Tuesday night was the game that showed they do have the cajones for the play-offs and potentially promotion. The recent history of falling away at this stage of the season was weighing heavily on the players. But for them to come back so strongly against a team like Cardiff showed that they can handle the pressure. It felt like a night where they finally won over their own fans.

Their game against Aston Villa tomorrow is now crucial. Beat them – and they will be expected to then go on and beat Barnsley. The question for Gary Rowett then is whether to stick to the same side or not. I know that Steve Bruce regrets not changing his side after Villa thrashed Wolves at home, only to lose to QPR a few days later. Fatigue – mental and physical – will play a part.

The Derby players gave it everything on Tuesday and the same eleven won't be as sharp, especially with Villa having the full week to prepare. I would freshen it up, but the pressure will be on to keep the same side.

It was a big night in the Championship on Tuesday. And it was particularly massive for Derby. But in a way, nothing changed. It's still in Derby's hands for the play-offs and still in Cardiff's for automatic promotion. I believe both will get there. But, then again this is the Championship!

Scott Minto is a former Chelsea, Benfica and West Ham defender and is the lead anchor for EFL coverage on Sky Sports.