Boris Johnson will survive the inquiries – but he is unlikely to be prime minister again

The Committee of Privileges inquiry into whether Boris Johnson knowingly misled parliament as prime minister is about to start taking evidence in public, including from Johnson himself. This will be a media circus, powered by a keen sense of anticipation. Journalists will naturally talk up the possibility that Johnson could be censured severely enough to trigger a by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, but a sober look at the inquiry suggests that he will survive with a minor telling-off at worst.

Johnson is also likely to emerge relatively unscathed from the public inquiry into the government’s handling of coronavirus, which is going to be a bigger and longer-running media event. Baroness Hallett’s inquiry has hired 11 KCs and 50 junior barristers, and still intends to start taking evidence this spring.

The pre-publicity for both inquiries has been reminiscent of that of the Hutton and Chilcot inquiries into Tony Blair’s conduct during the Iraq war. In both those cases, the media hullabaloo, which in Chilcot’s case lasted seven years, convicted, hanged, drew and quartered Blair only to be confounded by the reports themselves, which exonerated him of all the worst charges.