Can the government win the next election during a recession?

It’s a question well worth asking as the economic cycle becomes increasingly separate from the electoral cycle over the coming two years: can a government win a general election during a recession?

The general answer to that is no, for obvious reasons. Indeed, there is only one post-war example of a government holding a general election right in the midst of a slump, which is when Edward Heath asked voters for a mandate to deal with industrial unrest and inflation in 1974. He won a narrow majority of the popular vote, but lost too many seats and was swiftly ousted.

But the corollary is that if an economy is emerging from a recession, whether through good luck or wise stewardship, the government of the time has a much better chance of winning another term.