Bright prospects make Bunzl worth holding

Rebound will aid Metal Bulletin; Aquarius Platinum worth a gamble

Wednesday 28 August 2002 00:00
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The fluffy, inky bit inside a felt-tip pen. Carrier bags. A cigarette filter. A plastic cap. Carrier bags. A plastic tray. Clingfilm. Some more carrier bags. It could be the contents of a box of junk in the garage, but it is also part of the menu of products sold by Bunzl, the services and light manufacturing company which slipped, barely noticed, into the FTSE 100 index earlier this year.

The company's shares have been stellar performers over almost any timescale you care to mention since the arrival of Tony Habgood at the helm in 1991. They are weathering the bear market just as the underlying company is weathering the economic slowdown. It is a solid company, with acquisitions providing the sexy growth on top.

Results for the first half of the year, published yesterday, showed a 6 per cent rise in pre-tax profit to £96.3m. That's slower growth than in recent times, largely because of the slide in the value of the dollar, in which the North America-focused Bunzl makes most of its sales. The rate of growth could yet fall further since the group has also recently disposed of its historic paper distribution business for a tidy £139m. But the sale puts another pot of gold in the war chest, and Mr Habgood says he sees no end to the opportunities for bolt-on acquisitions in what it calls "out-sourcing services", now the group's main business.

Bunzl supplies supermarkets and caterers with all the bits and pieces they need to prepare and package food, plus supplying other disposables such as carrier bags. Its customers are increasingly looking to the likes of Bunzl as a one-stop shop for these supplies, so the market is growing. And the acquisitions have been well picked and well managed. Mr Habgood's record is one of increasing margins at these new businesses, and the City routinely upgrades its forecasts every time a new deal is tied up.

The group's is highly cash-generative – particularly the cigarette filters manufacturing business, Filtrona – despite a plastics division whose profits ebb and flow with the economic tide. The shares trade on 16 times Investec's forecast of 2002 earnings, is in line with the market as a whole and fair value. The prospect of further upgrades makes the shares worth holding.

Rebound will aid Metal Bulletin

Metal bashing is not a lucrative activity these days – for those in the industry or for publishers such as Metal Bulletin that cover the sector. Metals, minerals and mining have been depressed for more than two years and you cannot sell magazines to (or solicit advertising from) companies that have gone bust or to those which have disappeared in the frenzy of consolidation in these industries.

Metal Bulletin yesterday reported adjusted pre-tax profits down 24 per cent to £2.5m, for the six months to the end of June. Worse, the company appeared to suggest that expectations for the second half may have to be lowered.

"As a second half weighted business, a satisfactory performance for the year remains dependant on trading conditions in our key markets showing at least some signs of stability; it remains particularly difficult to forecast the performance of our advertising activities," the company said. Tom Hempenstall, the chief executive, explained that the group was just being ultra-cautious in its public statements and the situation was not as precarious as this pronouncement suggested. In fact, August saw the first rise in subscriptions for the company's flagship Metal Bulletin publication for 20 months.

Whilst serving the Old Economy is better for business-to-business publishers than writing about technology, Metal Bulletin's experience shows that no part of the media is a safe bet in a downturn. Along with the rest of the media industry, advertising sales, which account for about half its revenues, have fallen steeply.

When a rebound does come, Metal Bulletin seems well placed to cash in, having reduced costs and spent time marketing its services to new customers in the financial world. But the company's shares closed down 7.5p to 130p yesterday, putting the stock on a forward multiple of 14 times, which is not cheap enough to justify the wait.

Aquarius Platinum worth a gamble

It is best to start with the risks when examining if to invest in a mining company, particularly a small one such as Aquarius Platinum. If you aren't scared away by the end of the list, and if you have gambling money to spare, it could be worth a punt.

The main concern in recent weeks has been political risk. The company's platinum mine is Kroondal in South Africa, where the government plans to give black economic empowerment groups rights that could force overseas companies to dispose of some assets. This fear has been overdone and ministers are now going out of their way to reassure foreign investors they will be compensated at a market rate. Aquarius's recent move into Zimbabwe is fraught with dangers of its own, but it is partnering with a local firm.

The price of platinum can go down as well as up, as proved by Aquarius's annual results yesterday. The price it gets for its product slipped 35 per cent on the previous year. Despite a step change in production levels, up 48 per cent at Kroondal, revenues were almost 3 per cent lower. The platinum price has stabilised and demand for jewellery in Asia and engine catalysts in the West should push it up next year.

And mining is, of course, no easy business. Geological studies on Aquarius's third South African mine will throw up obstacles to overcome, but a more advanced project, Marikana, is on track (and ahead of budget) to start producing next year.

Aquarius is closely linked with the giant Impala, which should provide a safety net if it hits trouble. Its shares, down 2p at 259p, are due a rebound.

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